27 Jun 2025
Thought leadership
Read time: 3 Min
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Why Calorie Counting Failed 74% of Adults

By Marc Bates

Twenty-three states now have obesity rates exceeding 35% of adults.

In 2013, no state had reached this threshold.

This catastrophic acceleration happened during the peak years of calorie-counting apps, fitness trackers, and "eat less, move more" public health campaigns. The very tools and advice we were told would solve obesity have presided over its worst explosion in human history.

Seventy-four percent of adults and 40% of children are now overweight or obese.

The calorie paradigm didn't just fail. It failed spectacularly while medical institutions doubled down on the same broken advice.

The Clinical Evidence That Changes Everything

Dr. Tro Kalayjian documented a case that should have shattered conventional thinking.

Patient: Type 2 diabetes, A1C at 12%, on insulin therapy, following standard low-fat, high-carb dietary advice with zero sustained improvement.

Intervention: Low-carbohydrate ketogenic diet with intermittent fasting.

Outcome: A1C dropped from 12% to 6% (non-diabetic range), patient discontinued all diabetes medications, total weight loss only 8 pounds.

This case violates everything conventional medicine teaches. Diabetes improvement without significant weight loss suggests glucose metabolism healed at the cellular level, independent of calorie restriction.

Another patient saw triglycerides drop from over 1,000 mg/dL to below 100 mg/dL. A third experienced LDL cholesterol reduction of 480 mg/dL.

These outcomes exceed the most expensive pharmaceutical interventions. Repatha, costing $10,000 annually, typically lowers LDL by only 60 points.

Recent meta-analysis confirms these aren't isolated cases. Diabetes remission rates reached 57% with low-carbohydrate diets compared to 31% for control diets at six months.

The clinical evidence is overwhelming. The question becomes: why does conventional medicine ignore it?

The Physiology They Don't Teach

Jean Mayer documented the true driver of hunger in 1953.

Blood glucose fluctuations, not caloric intake, trigger hunger signals in the brain. Even modest blood sugar drops of 20 points activate ghrelin and suppress leptin, creating the biochemical cascade we experience as craving.

Here's what happens with a high-carbohydrate meal:

Carbohydrate ingestion causes rapid blood glucose spike. Pancreas releases large insulin bolus. Insulin response overshoots, creating reactive hypoglycemia within 2-3 hours. Brain interprets glucose drop as energy crisis. Hunger hormones activate while satiety signals shut down.

Meanwhile, insulin blocks lipolysis. The body cannot access stored fat for energy during this artificial crisis, creating urgent cravings for quick carbohydrates.

With low-carbohydrate, high-fat meals, minimal insulin releases, blood sugar remains stable, fat oxidation continues, and satiety hormones like CCK and peptide YY increase naturally.

Hunger becomes optional rather than inevitable.

This mechanism has been documented for seventy years. Medical schools still don't teach it.

The Corporate Machine Behind the Failure

Gary Ruskin's investigation through Freedom of Information Act requests revealed the systematic corruption of nutrition science.

Corporate funding documents show Coca-Cola spent $118.6 million over five years on scientific research and health partnerships, including major medical organizations like the American Cancer Society, American College of Cardiology, and Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.

The company created the Global Energy Balance Network, a nonprofit shell organization that promoted "just exercise more" messaging while diverting attention from sugar consumption.

Internal emails revealed Coca-Cola funded academic researchers who appeared in major publications and media outlets under the guise of scientific neutrality, promoting the idea that obesity resulted from inactivity rather than diet.

Ninety-six national health organizations accepted money from Coca-Cola and PepsiCo between 2011-2015, including the American Diabetes Association and National Institutes of Health.

The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics allowed dietitians to earn continuing education credits by attending Coca-Cola-sponsored sessions on "Hydration and Exercise" that promoted soda as a hydration option.

The American Heart Association gave its "Heart-Check" seal to sugary cereals like Honey Nut Cheerios and Cocoa Puffs because they were "low in saturated fat."

This wasn't influence. This was systematic capture of the institutions Americans trust for health guidance.

The Ethical Catastrophe

Medical ethics demands informed consent.

Patients receive dietary advice without being told it has a 95-98% long-term failure rate for weight loss. They're not informed that calorie restriction often increases hunger through blood sugar fluctuations, fails to correct insulin resistance, and leads to muscle loss with metabolic slowdown.

When these predictable failures occur, patients are told they "didn't stick with it" or "didn't try hard enough."

The blame shifts from the failed protocol to the patient's supposed lack of willpower.

This creates shame, self-blame, and mental health deterioration while protecting healthcare providers from accountability for prescribing ineffective treatments.

Patients are never told that insulin resistance, not willpower, drives their hunger. They're not informed that refined carbohydrates and seed oils promote hormonal chaos and inflammation. They don't learn that satiety is hormonally regulated, not calorically determined.

Proper informed consent would sound like this:

"The conventional recommendation of reducing calories and fat has been standard for decades. However, large-scale trials show very low long-term success rates, especially with insulin resistance, cravings, or obesity. Your hormonal regulation of hunger, particularly insulin and ghrelin, plays a major role in weight and health management. Calorie restriction without addressing these hormonal drivers often increases hunger and slows metabolism. I want to offer all your options, including low-carbohydrate approaches, which improve glucose control, reduce triglycerides, and increase satiety without calorie counting. You deserve to choose based on the best available science, not institutional inertia."

Anything less violates the fundamental principle of medical ethics.

The Institutional Resistance

Physicians who acknowledge this evidence still hesitate to recommend carbohydrate restriction.

They fear legal liability for deviating from standard of care, even though the American Diabetes Association, Diabetes UK, and European Association for the Study of Diabetes have endorsed low-carb diets for Type 2 diabetes since 2019-2020.

They worry about peer backlash in academic environments where challenging consensus threatens promotions, referrals, and reputation.

Their continuing medical education comes from sources funded by pharmaceutical and processed food interests, so they never learn about ketogenic therapy, fasting, or dietary diabetes reversal.

Electronic health records make it easy to prescribe statins, metformin, or insulin, but there's no dropdown menu for "reversed diabetes through carbohydrate restriction."

The system rewards treating diseases, not curing them.

Some physicians claim they need more long-term data on ketogenic diets. But we have fifty years of long-term data on high-carb, low-fat diets: the largest obesity and diabetes epidemic in human history, 95% failure rates for calorie restriction, and increasing childhood fatty liver disease.

Meanwhile, clinical trials show sustained diabetes remission with nutritional ketosis, and traditional populations thrived for generations on low-carb, high-fat diets.

Standard of care is what most doctors do. Science is what's true. Ethics is what helps the patient.

The intersection of all three is where medicine should be practiced.

The First Domino

Transforming mainstream medicine requires recognizing insulin resistance as the primary driver of chronic disease.

Until medicine stops treating insulin resistance as a side effect and acknowledges it as the root pathology behind obesity, Type 2 diabetes, fatty liver disease, Alzheimer's, PCOS, and many cancers, we remain trapped in symptom management.

This recognition would force new diagnostic protocols with earlier insulin testing, elevate low-carb diets from "alternative" to first-line interventions, reframe obesity as hormonal dysregulation rather than moral failure, and shift funding toward root-cause reversal instead of pharmaceutical maintenance.

Success would mean patients being told "You're not broken, you've been misinformed, and we can fix this." It would mean measurable disease reversals: diabetes without medications, resolved fatty liver, normalized blood pressure, optimized triglycerides and HDL.

Healthcare systems would see cost collapse in chronic care. Virta Health's peer-reviewed data showed $9,600 per patient per year savings by reversing diabetes through nutritional ketosis.

Medical education would teach the biochemistry of fuel partitioning, hormonal cascades of insulin and leptin, and nutritional therapy as primary treatment rather than afterthought.

The paradigm shift moves from calorie restriction to hormonal regulation, from fat fear to whole foods, from symptom management to root cause reversal, from blaming patients to fixing physiology.

The Truth They Need to Hear

Millions of people follow conventional advice while blaming themselves for predictable failures.

The father with Type 2 diabetes skips meals and stacks medications, terrified he'll lose a foot before walking his daughter down the aisle. The mother tries every "healthy" snack and 1,200-calorie plan, gaining weight while losing hope as her doctor tells her to "just move more." The child with fatty liver disease believes he's broken before hitting puberty.

They need to hear this truth:

You don't need more willpower. You need a new map. You're not failing. You've been failed by the system, by outdated science, by institutions that told you your biology doesn't matter.

Hunger is a hormonal signal, not a moral failing. Cravings are the siren call of unstable blood sugar, not a sign of weakness. Your body responds exactly as designed to the wrong inputs.

You can turn this around. Not with starvation or shame, but with nourishment, knowledge, and support.

You were never supposed to white-knuckle your way through every meal. You were supposed to feel satisfied, energized, and free.

Your biology isn't your enemy. It's your greatest ally, once you feed it properly.

For every day this truth stays hidden, more people are needlessly medicated, misled, and made to feel like failures. By the time someone reaches dialysis, 200 units of insulin, or their third cardiac stent, it's too late to say "We could have fixed this with food."

Every patient who reverses their disease, every person who breaks free from cravings, every parent who gets their child off the blood sugar rollercoaster doesn't just get health back.

They get their life back.

The revolution starts when enough clinicians, coaches, and patients stop asking for permission to challenge the system and start practicing what the science and outcomes already prove.

The first domino has begun to wobble. It needs a few more strong nudges from brave practitioners, empowered patients, and a louder truth.

Don't wait for medicine to change. Become the standard that medicine must eventually follow.

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Email for questions

marc@optimalhumandiet.com

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